Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Group A permutations

Group A's final games are tonight...who can qualify? What are the permutations? Before the tournament started I predicted France and Mexico to qualify. I also acknowledged this was the toughest group to pick as France, Mexico and Uruguay could be hard to separate and South Africa had the home advantage.

Uruguay and Mexico are playing each other and both only need a point to survive. If this happens Uruguay will finish first and Mexico second - setting up a likely date with Argentina in the second round.

If Uruguay win they will finish first. Mexico will finish 2nd unless France or South Africa can catch them up on goal difference. A 4-1 win to France coupled with a 1-0 loss for Mexico would do it. Or a 2-0 loss coupled with a 3-0 win for France. South Africa would require a bigger swing as their current goal difference is -3 compared to France's -2. If Mexico win, for Uruguay to be displaced in second would also require a bigger swing as they have a +3 goal difference compared to +2 for Mexico. The biggest swing would be for South Africa to overtake France, a 6 or 7 goal swing would be required. With France's current infighting and dramas their chances are really not great.

The chances are 98%ish stacked in Mexico and Uruguay's favour and they will probably end up playing out some kind of draw.

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