Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Group B permutations

Before the tournament I predicted Argentina. I'm not a quitter so I'll stick with that although I now have an inkling that Argentina and South Korea might make it. Let's look at the numbers.

Argentina only need a point against Greece to qualify. They will qualify with a loss if Nigeria win or draw against South Korea. The only way they could miss out on qualification is if they lose to Greece and South Korea win - with a heavy swing. In this situation 3 teams would be on 6 points and it would come down to goal difference. Currently Argentina are +4, South Korea are -1 and Greece are -1. So it would take something amazing for Argentina to be going home.

Greece can qualify with a win if Nigeria draw or beat South Korea. If South Korea also win they will need to beat Argentina by more than South Korea beat Nigeria. They can qualify with a draw if Nigeria beat South Korea or if South Korea also draw and score 2 more goals in their game than Greece do in theirs. Greece will be knocked out if they lose.

South Korea will qualify with a win (providing if Greece also win they can equal the margin of victory). They will qualify with a draw if Argentina win or if Greece draw and do not score 2 more goals than South Korea in their draw. South Korea will be eliminated if they lose.

Nigeria will qualify if they win and Greece lose. That is the only way they can qualify. But this scenario is quite possible!

Argentina will probably rest a few players for this game but should still have enough to win. I wouldn't be at all surprised if South Korea v Nigeria was a draw and South Korea got through. But as I initially picked Nigeria I'm gonna say Nigeria can get the victory they need (coupled with an Argentine loss)

No comments: