Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Group C permutations

My initial prediction for Group C was England and Slovenia to progress (in 1st and 2nd) although I acknowledged that I was picking an upset having Slovenia over the USA. The last round of games will be intriguing as all are in with a shot at qualifying. Slovenia top the group but all can change in the blink of an eye. What do they all need to do when Slovenia play England and the USA play Algeria? [In simplistic terms without all the minor nuances].

England: A win and they are through - in first providing they win by a better margin than the USA. A draw could see them through but only if the USA score 3 less goals than them, 2 less and it would go down to a coin toss.

Slovenia: A win and they will finish first, a draw and they will qualify in first or second (depending on the USA result, a USA win might prevent them from taking 1st spot. A 1-1 draw between Slovenia and England and a 1-0 win to the USA would result in a coin toss between Slovenia and the USA to decide first place)

USA: A win and they are through in either first or second - depending on the other result. A draw and they will likely go through if England also draw (particularly if it is a score draw) or if England lose.

Algeria: Must beat USA. If they do and England draw they will be through in 2nd. If they do and England win they will be fighting with Slovenia for second place on goal difference. They basically need to win by 2 and England by 1 or vice versa. If they win and Slovenia win they will be through in 2nd. Algeria cannot finish first.

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