Friday, June 25, 2010

Group H permutations

Group H is fascinating. All can still qualify (although very unlikely for Honduras) and it could come down to goal difference. It's Spain v Chile and Switzerland v Honduras...

Chile will qualify top with a win or draw against Spain. If they lose Spain will finish ahead of them on goal difference and Chile will only be able to finish second. Second place will come down to goal difference with Switzerland (should they beat Honduras and not by enough to overtake Spain). In that situation, should either game be won by more than a single goal Switzerland will qualify and Chile will be eliminated. If Chile lose and Switzerland win by the same one goal margin scoreline they will finish with the same goals for and against and Chile will qualify by virtue of having beaten Switzerland. If Chile lose and Switzerland win, both by one goal, then Chile's opposition must score the same number of goals, or more, than Switzerand in order for Chile to qualify 2nd. If Chile lose and Switzerland fail to win Chile will qualify.

Spain will win the group if they beat Chile and Switzerland fail to overtake them on goal difference. If Spain win against Chile by the same margin (or more) than Switzerland beat Honduras they will be top. If Spain beat Chile by 1 less than Switzerland beat Honduras it will come down to goals scored (and if that's the same Switzerland will finish first due to beating Spain). For example, if Switzerland win 3-1 and Spain win 1-0 it's the same goal difference but Switzerland have scored more and will finish 1st. If Switzerland win 2-0 and Spain win 1-0 goal difference and goals scored will be equal and so Switzerland will finish 1st because they beat Spain. If Switzerland win 2-0 and Spain win 2-1, Spain will finish 1st. If Spain beat Chile by 2 less than Switzerland beat Honduras Switzerland will finish 1st and Spain 2nd. If Spain draw they will finish 2nd if Switzerland draw or lose against Honduras. If Spain lose and Honduras win Spain, Switzerland and Honduras will all be on 3 points and 2nd place will come down to goal difference (and if two are equal second on that then head-to-head between the two sides.

Switzerland will qualify if they beat Honduras and Spain fail to beat Chile. In such a situation they will compete with Chile for 1st and 2nd based on goal difference. If that is equal then it will come down to goals scored. And if that is equal Chile will be 1st having beaten Switzerland. If Switzerland and Spain win Switzerland will have to overtake Chile's goal difference, if that is the same they will have to have scored more goals, and if that is the same they will miss out. If Switzerland and Spain win they could finish first if they overtake Spain's goal difference, or equal Spain's goal difference and have scored more (or equal) goals. If Switzerland draw they require Chile to beat Spain to finish 2nd - otherwise they will be eliminated. If Switzerland lose they cannot finish 1st but they may finish 2nd. They would require Chile to beat Spain so that they are level on 3 points with Spain and Honduras. Then it will come down to goal difference and if that is equal with one team (and above anothers) it will come down to goals scored, and if that's the same - head-to-head. If Switzerland lose and Chile fail to beat Spain they are eliminated.

Honduras cannot finish 1st. In order to finish 2nd they first must win and hope Chile beat Spain. If that happens they will be tied on 3 points with Spain and Switzerland. Overall goal difference then goals scored will be taken into account, and if teams are still tied then the goal difference and goals scored between the tied teams will be taken into account. If still tied, lots will be drawn. To give an example of Honduras finishing 2nd - if they beat Switzerland 3-1 and Chile beat Spain 2-0, they will achieve that feat!

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