Group B permutations

Before the tournament I predicted Argentina. I'm not a quitter so I'll stick with that although I now have an inkling that Argentina and South Korea might make it. Let's look at the numbers.

Argentina only need a point against Greece to qualify. They will qualify with a loss if Nigeria win or draw against South Korea. The only way they could miss out on qualification is if they lose to Greece and South Korea win - with a heavy swing. In this situation 3 teams would be on 6 points and it would come down to goal difference. Currently Argentina are +4, South Korea are -1 and Greece are -1. So it would take something amazing for Argentina to be going home.

Greece can qualify with a win if Nigeria draw or beat South Korea. If South Korea also win they will need to beat Argentina by more than South Korea beat Nigeria. They can qualify with a draw if Nigeria beat South Korea or if South Korea also draw and score 2 more goals in their game than Greece do in theirs. Greece will be knocked out if they lose.

South Korea will qualify with a win (providing if Greece also win they can equal the margin of victory). They will qualify with a draw if Argentina win or if Greece draw and do not score 2 more goals than South Korea in their draw. South Korea will be eliminated if they lose.

Nigeria will qualify if they win and Greece lose. That is the only way they can qualify. But this scenario is quite possible!

Argentina will probably rest a few players for this game but should still have enough to win. I wouldn't be at all surprised if South Korea v Nigeria was a draw and South Korea got through. But as I initially picked Nigeria I'm gonna say Nigeria can get the victory they need (coupled with an Argentine loss)

Group A permutations

Group A's final games are tonight...who can qualify? What are the permutations? Before the tournament started I predicted France and Mexico to qualify. I also acknowledged this was the toughest group to pick as France, Mexico and Uruguay could be hard to separate and South Africa had the home advantage.

Uruguay and Mexico are playing each other and both only need a point to survive. If this happens Uruguay will finish first and Mexico second - setting up a likely date with Argentina in the second round.

If Uruguay win they will finish first. Mexico will finish 2nd unless France or South Africa can catch them up on goal difference. A 4-1 win to France coupled with a 1-0 loss for Mexico would do it. Or a 2-0 loss coupled with a 3-0 win for France. South Africa would require a bigger swing as their current goal difference is -3 compared to France's -2. If Mexico win, for Uruguay to be displaced in second would also require a bigger swing as they have a +3 goal difference compared to +2 for Mexico. The biggest swing would be for South Africa to overtake France, a 6 or 7 goal swing would be required. With France's current infighting and dramas their chances are really not great.

The chances are 98%ish stacked in Mexico and Uruguay's favour and they will probably end up playing out some kind of draw.